{"id":2250,"date":"2024-10-19T11:07:34","date_gmt":"2024-10-19T09:07:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gfima.es\/?p=2250"},"modified":"2025-02-21T12:47:12","modified_gmt":"2025-02-21T11:47:12","slug":"bce-anuncia-nueva-rebaja-de-tipos-de-interes-y-aviva-la-competencia-hipotecaria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gfima.es\/?p=2250","title":{"rendered":"BCE anuncia nueva rebaja de tipos de inter\u00e9s y aviva la competencia hipotecaria"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) ha cumplido con las expectativas del mercado al anunciar una nueva reducci\u00f3n en los tipos de inter\u00e9s. En su reuni\u00f3n del 17 de octubre, el Consejo de Gobierno de la principal autoridad monetaria de la eurozona decidi\u00f3 recortar el tipo de referencia en 25 puntos b\u00e1sicos, lo que situar\u00e1 la tasa oficial en el 3,25% a partir del 23 de octubre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esta es la tercera reducci\u00f3n de tipos desde junio, marcando un cambio de tendencia en los \u00faltimos ocho a\u00f1os, y la segunda consecutiva. Adem\u00e1s, es la primera vez que la decisi\u00f3n no coincide con la publicaci\u00f3n de nuevas proyecciones macroecon\u00f3micas trimestrales, lo que refleja una mayor confianza en el proceso de desinflaci\u00f3n y un cambio de enfoque hacia la debilidad del crecimiento en la eurozona.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La rebaja de 25 puntos b\u00e1sicos afecta a los tres tipos de inter\u00e9s oficiales del BCE, por lo que los tipos aplicables a la facilidad de dep\u00f3sito, las operaciones principales de financiaci\u00f3n y la facilidad marginal de cr\u00e9dito se reducir\u00e1n al 3,25%, 3,40% y 3,65%, respectivamente, dentro de una semana.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La bajada de tipos: una decisi\u00f3n esperada y acertada<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

El mercado llevaba semanas anticipando este recorte de tipos, impulsado por la mejora en los datos de inflaci\u00f3n y el debilitamiento econ\u00f3mico en la eurozona.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seg\u00fan Eurostat, la inflaci\u00f3n en la eurozona se situ\u00f3 en septiembre en el 1,7%, cuatro d\u00e9cimas menos que en agosto, y su nivel m\u00e1s bajo desde abril de 2021. El \u00edndice de inflaci\u00f3n subyacente, que es m\u00e1s relevante para el BCE, tambi\u00e9n baj\u00f3 una d\u00e9cima hasta el 2,7%. Paralelamente, la actividad empresarial en la eurozona se contrajo en septiembre, lo que sugiere un crecimiento m\u00ednimo del PIB en el tercer trimestre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflaci\u00f3n general en la eurozona (\u00faltimos cuatro a\u00f1os)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ante este contexto de desinflaci\u00f3n y una actividad econ\u00f3mica debilitada, la mejor decisi\u00f3n que pod\u00eda tomar el Banco Central Europeo era reducir los tipos de inter\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El economista Miguel C\u00f3rdoba explica que \u201clas subidas de tipos se utilizan para frenar la inflaci\u00f3n, y en este caso ha funcionado parcialmente, aunque se est\u00e1 evaluando solo el incremento interanual y no el acumulado de los \u00faltimos tres a\u00f1os. Ahora, con la inflaci\u00f3n controlada, lo l\u00f3gico ser\u00eda que los tipos de inter\u00e9s oscilen entre el 2,5% y el 3,5%, teniendo en cuenta el objetivo del 2% del BCE. El dinero siempre debe tener un precio\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00f3rdoba tambi\u00e9n critica la pol\u00edtica monetaria entre 2015 y 2022, se\u00f1alando que los tipos negativos \u00abno ten\u00edan sentido econ\u00f3mico y no fueron efectivos como herramienta\u00bb. Por ello, sostiene que esta nueva bajada de tipos en octubre \u00abes razonable para ajustar los tipos a la banda adecuada\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se espera que en diciembre haya una nueva rebaja de 25 puntos b\u00e1sicos y que se produzcan m\u00e1s reducciones a lo largo de 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u00bfCu\u00e1nto y cu\u00e1ndo bajar\u00e1n m\u00e1s los tipos de inter\u00e9s?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analistas y economistas coinciden en que el ciclo de bajadas de tipos de inter\u00e9s apenas ha comenzado. De hecho, las previsiones actuales sugieren un panorama m\u00e1s flexible de lo que se esperaba hace unas semanas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El consenso anticipa un nuevo recorte de 25 puntos b\u00e1sicos en la reuni\u00f3n del Consejo de Gobierno del BCE del pr\u00f3ximo 12 de diciembre, lo que dejar\u00eda los tipos de inter\u00e9s en un 3% para finales de 2024. Adem\u00e1s, se espera que los tipos bajen otro punto adicional a lo largo de 2025, siempre que no ocurran eventos imprevistos, como una escalada en los conflictos de Oriente Pr\u00f3ximo o Ucrania, aumentos en el precio del petr\u00f3leo, problemas de suministro, o un eventual triunfo de Donald Trump en las elecciones de Estados Unidos. Tambi\u00e9n influir\u00e1 lo que decida la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos, ya que la diferencia entre los bancos centrales de ambas regiones afecta al tipo de cambio euro\/d\u00f3lar y, por ende, al costo de importar petr\u00f3leo y gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pr\u00f3ximas reuniones del BCE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Consejo de Gobierno del BCE se re\u00fane aproximadamente cada seis semanas. Estas son las fechas clave para sus decisiones futuras:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • 12 de diciembre de 2024<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 30 de enero de 2025<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 6 de marzo de 2025<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 17 de abril de 2025<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 5 de junio de 2025<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 24 de julio de 2025<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 11 de septiembre de 2025<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 30 de octubre de 2025<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 18 de diciembre de 2025<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) ha cumplido con las expectativas del mercado al anunciar una nueva reducci\u00f3n en los tipos de inter\u00e9s. En su reuni\u00f3n del 17 de octubre, el Consejo de Gobierno de la principal autoridad monetaria de la eurozona decidi\u00f3 recortar el tipo de referencia en 25 puntos b\u00e1sicos, lo que situar\u00e1 la […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2253,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,22,43,1],"tags":[28,26,29,34,31,27,32,25],"class_list":["post-2250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualidad","category-comprador","category-hipotecas","category-sin-categoria","tag-casas","tag-ciudad-real","tag-comprar","tag-hipotecas","tag-impuestos","tag-pisos","tag-tomelloso","tag-vivienda"],"yoast_head":"\nBCE anuncia nueva rebaja de tipos de inter\u00e9s y aviva la competencia hipotecaria - Gfima<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gfima.es\/?p=2250\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"BCE anuncia nueva rebaja de tipos de inter\u00e9s y aviva la competencia hipotecaria - Gfima\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) ha cumplido con las expectativas del mercado al anunciar una nueva reducci\u00f3n en los tipos de inter\u00e9s. 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